India-Sri Lanka Pre-Match Analysis

Here are my pre-match analysis for the great final.

Frame of Mind:
1. India: After 2 very intense matches, players will feel very happy and light. State of mind very similar to T20 world cup final. Indian players will be confident and will play the game uninhibited and will have fun in the park. They will also be desperate, but in a good way. India will feel they have more confident players in their 11 than Sri Lanka.
2. Sri Lanka will be under pressure. Sangakkara has 6 players in his team who are confident, rest not so. Confident players are: Dilshan, Tharanga, Sangakkara, Jayawardene, Malinga and Murali. These are the power players for them.

India Batting:
1. Has to be wary of Malinga. He is the danger bowler for India. Fast bowlers of all previous matches (Steys for SA, Rampaul for WI, Bresnan for England and Riaz for Pakistan) took 5 wickets against India, and at crucial points. Malinga is amongst the best of these and he can inflict lot of pain. So, Indian middle order has to be careful.
2. Just like in previous matches, Gambhir will play the spinners well and will notch up a score of 30-40 odd runs. He dosen't look to be in the form to score big runs.
3. Expect Sehwag to give India the usual explosive start. Whether he will score big runs depends on how he approaches the spinners.
4. Expect Tendulkar to carry on with the same form. His goal is to help India keep scoring at 5 RPO for as much duration as possible.
5. Yuvraj has had problems with spinners in the past. So, it is important that he comes into play as late in the game as possible. Kohli plays spinners and medium pace bowlers well, so I would like to see Gambhi and Kohli step up and play good innings. Ideally, Yuvraj should not come in to bat before 30th over.
6. Dhoni and Raina are the players who need to play according to the situation. If India is chasing and are under pressure, these 2 will have to soak in the pressure and play a gritty innings, prevent any batting collapse. They are absolutely capable.
7. India needs to do good running between wickets. Wankhede is a smallish ground, so Sri Lanka fielders will do a good job in the outfield. Gambhir and Sehwag will need to run better if they are to score big runs.
8. The pitch has some bounce. Expect openers to test the pitch for first 3 overs. Expect a start similar to the one in the game against SA. Slow for first 3 overs and then aggression.

Sri Lanka batting:
1. Dilshan will be aggressive but also cautious, he will not throw his bat at everything.
2. Tharanga will hit some lovely cover drives and on-drives. He will probably score a good 50, but Dilshan will get a start and get out. Irrespective of the score SL chases or if bats first, Tharanga will play the role of stroke maker. Zak is the man who can get him out cheaply. Munaf is the bowler who can get the wicket of Dilshan, after bowling 4 dot balls.
3. Sri lanka batting will depend a lot on India's fielding. India will bowl pretty much with the same intensity and style as against Australia and Pak.
4. Sagakkara's wicket will be hard to get. Harbhajan could be the bowler who gets him out, but expect Sagakkara to give harsh treatment to Indian bowlers.
5. India's bowling gets some sharp teeth with fielding. With good fielding, bowlers who bowl at 129kmph, suddenly are able to apply the same pressure that a 145kmph can. Sri Lanka will attack indian bowlers, but if they field well for 50 overs and play the game to enjoy, they will be in the game.

My Predictions:
1. India bats first.
>> India scores 270-280. Raina scores well at the end, Sachin scores a 100 of 123 balls and Gambhir scores 50. Kohli, Sehwag, Dhoni and Yuvraj combined will produce 100-110 runs.
>> Power Score: If India are able to play Malinga well, they will score 340.
>> Sri Lanka can win the game if India scores 270. India has to field to their level best to win.
>> India's score range can be anything between 270-350, depending upon conditions like Malinga, Sehwag, SL fielding and Yuvraj.

2. Sri Lanka bats first.
>> Sri Lanka scores 270, they will just scrap it through.
>> SL's score range will be 240-320, depending on India's fielding, Harbhajan bowling, Dilshan and Sangakkara.
>> If SL score 270, 90% India will win, if they score 320, 60% India will win (Gambhir and Kohli will be the players who will matter). Anything more than 320, India will loose with 90% chance (due to pressure while chasing).

My final prediction:
Sri lanka wins the toss, puts India in to bat.
India scores 290, Sri Lanka scores 250. India win by 40 runs.

I have a strong feeling India will win. I also predicted an India-SL world cup final on Cricinfo's world cup predictor tool, on Feb 11th. I had however predicted Aus, SA, India and SL to be the semi-finalists. Pakistan and SA were the surprises, Pakistan for playing so well and SA for loosing to NZ.

The Slumdog controversy

People have commented on the controversy surrounding slumdog millionaire showing the dark underbelly of India, or Mumbai city. Here's my take on this.

1. The film depicts truth. It does not fabricate a dark belly. There are slums, and there are riots and there are begging children. That's the truth. We see it everyday. The foreigners who come to India see it themselves. If the same truth is portrayed in a film, I see nothing wrong about it.

2. Having said that only truth has been picturised, there are people like Daniel Boyle and Rehman who have won accolades on a subject matter that really brings screen to life. Depicting poverty the way it was in the movie, brings the entire movie to life, and makes it a gripping-captivating experience.

3. With the grand success of the movie, I am sure the cast and crew would have made truck loads of moolah. I am sure, it will not hurt if Daniel Boyle and his team give back to the Mumbai slums, a percentage of their earnings, the subject matter that brought them so much glory.

All in all, a wonderful grappling and awe-inspiring movie.

Indian Cricket sans Kumble

Anil Kumble has retired from International Test Cricket. For many, this might come as a form of bland news. Not for me, and I am sure, not for many cricket fans like me who have grown up in their teens watching this man bowl India to so many victories. As Sunil Gavaskar has pointed out, Anil perhaps is one who has won India the maximum number of Test Matches (he has won many one-dayers also, but just talking of test right now).

I remember the period from 1993-2000, when India was under Azhar's captaincy. That many say was the golden period for India, for they did not loose even a single Test series at home, and grinded many of the top competing teams like Australia, England, West Indies and South Africa. In Test Matches, as we all know, we need to bowl the opposition team out twice in order to win the match. Although it is the batsman that set up the game and provide a platform, it is the bowlers who finally need to win you the match by bowling the opposition out in their second innings. Anil Kumble, precisely for this reason is termed India's greatest Test Match winner. He was a major contributor to the wickets in the second innings. During the 1990's, India did not have a world class spin attack barring Kumble. He was a lone spearhead. That is where his greatness lies, for he tormented batsmen with his guile and flippers for such a long and sustained period of time. He has been such a strong bowler for India, that even on the greenest of pitches, India cannot think of replacing Kumble with a fast bowler. There is unanimous feeling that he will perform better than any other fast bowler.

For a bowler, cricket is not just about taking wickets. It is also about building faith and trust in your captain and team members in you, of your dedication and fighting spirit. Anil Kumble, I feel, was the epitome of trust that a captain could posess in his bowlers. Even if a wicket does not suit his style of bowling, India would often play Kumble for the simple reason that they know he will try his level best to take wickets and not get defensive.

Kumble has gone through lot of criticism through the years. It's unfortunate that the talent that he grooms with his experience, becomes the cause for his criticism. This has happened with Sourav as well. They both spent a good quality amount of time in encouraging young spinners and players in Indian cricket. Now that both Sourav and Kumble have helped India reach a stage when we have built a good bench strength, the axe is on them. I don't know if this is right or wrong, but it does create an unhealthy atmosphere for in future, no senior cricketer will pass on his experience to youngsters.

I grew up through my teens watching Anil Kumble in his prime. He was to Indian bowling what Sachin Tendulkar is to batting. Cricketers talking of him being a hard competitor and aggressive bowler, but we never got to hear him sledge. I would like to mention that I had the great priveledge of shaking hands with him when he visited my school in Delhi the day after he took the 10 wicket haul against Pakistan. Our principal requested him to conduct the assembly and he gladly obliged by saying out the prayer joined in unison with 10,000 students. It was a momentous day for me to have got the chance to see this great Indian. Those memories are deeply cherished in my heart.

We all get emotional at times, especially about people like Anil Kumble. I am glad though that we have a good selection committe that does not get as sentimental. In retrospect, I think it was the right time for Anil to retire as his body wouldn't have allowed him to continue. Further, for the performer in him that we have so got accustomed to, to see him not able to deliver that level of performance is a bit of a disappointment.

Anil Kumble has held and carried the spin department almost all by himself through the last two decades. It is a very sad day for all of us who have grown up shouting Kumble Kumble everytime he has taken a wicket. Anil, wish you and your family all the very best and I hope you remain associated with Indian cricket for a long time to come. Indian cricket needs you and will always need you.

Raj Thakeray and Us

I have always believed, that a true leader delivers not what is expected, but what is needed. Raj Thakeray proclaims himself to be the so called leader and representative of Maharashtrians. I would like to question, what has he delivered to fulfill the needs of Marathi people. If he is so concerned about Marathi asmita, why dosen't he do something to create greater love and respect for them. Today, we all know about Gujaratis. Their enterprising attitude has brought laurels to our country. Narendra Modi has created an environment in his state that creates jobs for his people. Why dosen't Raj Thakeray do something similar. Why can it not come to his mind, that he should work with the government of Maharashtra to create infrastructure and industries that provide jobs for his people. Why is it that time and again, we Indians fall prey to such dirty politics. When will we grow up beyond all this and start thinking at a community level, about how we can raise our standards and contribute to create a safer and better place for our children.

Is Sachin the greatest or not?

Sachin's greatness has been questioned time and again by many cricket's stalwarts, journalists, and we fans. And in some sense, it makes a good conversation as it leads us to unearth facts and figures from the past to create a rational opinion. Most times however, it is the emotional attachment that we all feel with this great Indian that leads us to believe, yes indeed he is the greatest.

The objective of writing this blog on sachin's greatness, is not to start this conversation again. It is a sincere attempt to share the difference that Sachin Tendulkar has made to my life.

I remember having started watching cricket from 1994 onwards. My first memories are that of a match that India played against Pakistan at Sharjah. It was a final, with India needing around 250 runs to win. Atul Bedade was India's top scorer in that match, but India lost. Sachin and Jadeja were the openers. Sachin had got out on 17 runs I believe and it was a big disappointment as he was looking to steady the ship after initial loss of wickets. Since then, I have followed and played cricket as a passion.

The greatest difference that Sachin has made to my life, is that he has put smiles on my face even when the going has been tough. We all worship God, especially during hard times. We think of God who is above us all and has control of the universe, who can help us come out of hard times. Today I realize that Sachin, to me has done just that. Though I don't think of him consciously, but when he scores runs, it has a significant calming influence on my subconscious. This is something that no other cricketer has been able to do to me, neither of Dravid, Ganguly or Sehwag. Laxman is probably the next batsman who I admire the most and I wish if he could score more of those hundreds.

People have different yardsticks for measuring greatness. For me, anyone who pursues his passion with dedication, devotion and discipline for a life-time is great. I say so because during our pursuit, many distractions and detractors come in our way and hinder our progress. But Sachin is beyond this definition of mine as he has had to deal with many other hurdles and troubles before making it where he is today. Everytime he walks in to bat, his innings affects millions of people's lives. How many people in the world have been able to have that level of attachment. Let me take this further, how many cricketers in the world have enjoyed so much space in people's hearts and minds, without saying a word. I cannot think of anyone. I think I have enough knowledge about cricket to say this with confidence. None of Bradman, Sobers, Viv Richards, Gavaskar, Border, Waugh, Ponting could ever connect with so many people.

Beyond all the runs and hundreds that Sachin has scored, it is the attachment and connection that he has established with the masses, that to me makes him the greatest. His deeds are super-human in nature. As a 16 year old, he walked down the track to Abdul Qadir and hit him for 4 sixes in an over. I have a news feed on that innings of his.

''Sachin not even old enough to get a driving licence. Sachin Tendulkar was facing the best bowlers in the business. As the Pakistani crowds jeered and mocked Sachin holding out the placards saying "Dudh Pita Bhachcha ..ghar jaake dhoodh pee", (hey kid, go home and drink milk), Sachin sent the then young leg spinner Mustaq Ahmed hiding for cover (he had hit two sixes in one over.

The frustaded mentor of Mustaq Ahmed the legendary Abdul Qadir challenges Sachin saying "Bachchon ko kyon mar rahe ho? Hamein bhi maar dikhao" ("Why are you hitting kids? Try and hit me."). Sachin was silent, since then we all have come to know that he lets his bat do the talking. Abdul Quadir had made a simple request and Sachin obliged, and how.

Sachin hit 4 sixes in the over, making the spinner look the kid in the contest. The over read 6, 0, 4, 6 6 6, …and a legend was born.''

For me, it will be a sad day when he retires. I wish time stands still and that day never come. Having said this, I feel blessed to have taken birth in this era. I have watched, loved, admired and been captivated by Sachin for 15 years. When I look into the future and think about my kids, I am sure they will ask me, tell us about Sachin. I will tell them bed-time stories about him. My only desire that remains is that I watch him play live in full flow in a stadium. Amen.